Kemivision

Presented by Lloyds Banking Group By ANDREW MCDONALD with MEGAN MCELROY Good Tuesday morning . This is Andrew McDonald, still in Birmingham for the conference season that never ends. DRIVING THE DAY DON’T STOP THINKING ABOUT TOMORROW: Kemi Badenoch will spend the day before her big speech doing wall-to-wall media — as her party revels in its comfort zone while a so-far drama-free (and at times slightly dreary) Tory conference rumbles on.

Badenoch and her shadow ministers are keen to move from Monday’s economy focus to a Tuesday spent kicking Labour in its defense spending goolies ... but a dozen interviews for the Conservative leader in the middle of an exhausting conference program will be a good test of just how much her old habit of newsy stray words has faded. Kemivision: The leader of the opposition will begin her day on BBC Breakfast at 7.30 a.m. , followed by Times Radio ( 7.45 a.m. ) ... the Today program ( 8.10 a.m.) ... Good Morning Britain ( 8.35 a.m. ) ...

LBC ( 8.50 a.m. ) ... and GB News ( 9 a.m. ). She’ll then do sit-down interviews in the early afternoon with the pol eds of Channel 5, Channel 4, the BBC, Sky, GB News and ITV — with lines from those emerging from 5 p.m. First up: Dozens of questions about inheritance tax, which everyone in Birmingham’s ICC expects to be the focus of Badenoch’s speech tomorrow.

The Telegraph and Times posted stories within an hour of each other with very similar insight into the current thinking — reporting that she is expected to announce a significant cut to the tax. The papers expect she’ll either signal her intention to cut the 40% IHT rate or to increase the threshold at which it kicks in. **A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Financial empowerment looks different across generations. But digital tools alone don't guarantee financial confidence.

More than three in four 18–24-year-olds have used AI for personal finance, yet older digital tool users are the most confident generation managing money. Lives Empowered. A Nation Empowered. ** You’ll notice ... that ain’t scrapping inheritance tax altogether, which she was reportedly considering a few weeks back.

The Times reckons Badenoch thinks that would be too expensive. For now, Tory officials are saying all of this is just speculation ... but if tomorrow comes and goes without an inheritance tax announcement there will be a lot of surprised people on the Avantis out of Birmingham New Street Station. Dome’s day: As for the Tory story of the day ...

It’s an iron dome! The party announced plans to build a £10 billion “Britannia shield” air defense system to protect military bases and infrastructure from drone or missile attacks. In practice, the party says this will be an improved network of radar, command and control systems with interceptor missiles.

Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge will have a bit more detail when he presents the plan on the stage later (timings below). It’s obviously ... inspired by Israel’s iron dome — which helps Badenoch get flattering front pages in the Sun and Daily Star (!) comparing her to the Iron Lady. But it’s clearly not in the same league as the Israeli dome.

Former Joint Forces Command chief Richard Barrons told Newsnight such a system covering all of Britain would cost between seven and 10 times more than the Tories are committing to the project . Shadow Treasury Minister Richard Fuller told the same program “we’ve got to make a start.” TBF: Israel’s Iron Dome protects it from very frequent short-range attacks from its neighbors, which you’d hope and assume is not a problem Britain will have to face any time soon. And we have not faced drone or missile strikes in the same way as Israel — or Ukraine, which is also investing in this tech.

U.K. military and deterrence policy has typically led to a focus on other spending priorities — but the Tories are arguing that Britain is being left behind while other European allies upgrade their air and missile defenses. Badenoch and her team will face questions over whether this is the best use of the £10 billion. They say they’ve found the cash from welfare reform and reprioritizing existing expenditure.

Either way: This is a conference in opposition and the announcement helps the Tories push their point about the comparative lack of focus on defense spending at Labour’s conference last week, as Andy Burnham and co. face the task of trying to come up with more money. Badenoch is linking it to a fairly big issue in the news too. Thinking ‘bout U.S., what we gon’ be?

Badenoch has gone studs up on the curious case of the RAF airbase, suspected Iran-linked terror plot and withdrawn U.S. bombers. “Is it any wonder the U.S. are pulling their bombers out of RAF Fairford? They don’t believe the government is doing what’s necessary to defend our country from hostile states,” Badenoch writes in the Sun to promote her dome.

Donald Trump last night said the U.S. moved its bombers back to America after “some threats.” So far ... we don’t really know a great deal more, even though those comments from Trump indicate there must be some fresh intelligence on whatever happened there. There is speculation, including in the Beeb, that it could involve something similar to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb , a covert drone attack on Russian bases last year. But it all remains speculation.

RUSI’s Greg Bagwell offers an alternative view on X, pointing out the U.S. is also removing some assets deployed elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East for its Iran operations ... and that it’s also odd there has been no further withdrawal from other major U.S. bases in the U.K. yet. But anyway: It will be interesting to watch how far Badenoch pushes the link today between her defense focus and RAF Fairford ... and she has other angles to go on, too. The Times’ Oliver Wright and Steven Swinford report that Burnham is considering delaying the decision on the increase to defense spending until next autumn — by delaying the spending review Westminster assumes will be in the spring.

The Tories, on the other hand, can point to the fact they have already pledged to reach the 3% of GDP target. The economic headwinds do tend to be trickier to deal with while you’re actually in government. And then ... there’s the stuff the Tories are less keen to talk about.

Scoop — who cares wins: Three shadow Cabinet ministers told the POLITICO team in Birmingham that Badenoch could try to duck Andy Burnham’s social care challenge, by opting not to unveil a major social care offer of her own in the run-up to the election. The Tory frontbench is considering borrowing from Labour’s 2017 “dementia tax” playbook by opting for inaction while focusing attacks on Burnham’s approach (whatever that ends up being). The thinking: “I remind you that in 2017, Labour had nothing on social care, and they were the beneficiaries of our disaster,” said one shadow Cabinet member.

Another argued “no policy is still a policy” ... and a third said they will “have things to say about all these things,” but that they don’t think it will be the “centerpiece of our offer at the next election.” One other thing Badenoch will be asked about ... is whether her shadow Cabinet and MPs are fully on board with rejecting any attempts to change the triple lock at this time. Ex-MP David Gauke got some applause from activists when he told the Prosper reception for exiled Tory wets the party should scrap it. But ex-Chancellor and born-again triple lock skeptic Jeremy Hunt tells POLITICO he’d back his party in any pre-election vote on Labour’s plans because he doesn’t see Labour’s “more expensive” proposal as a remedy ... while Shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat, also a triple lock critic while on the backbenches, is expected to fall in line with the party.

Read Sam Blewett and the team’s piece here . TODAY IN BIRMINGHAM THE OTHER BIG DRAW TODAY ... is Shadow Housing Secretary Katie Lam, on the main stage from 9.45 a.m. One former Tory adviser told Playbook that “everyone wants to go to everything Kemi or Katie speak at.

There’s little enthusiasm for anything else.” Lam is also discussing housing at an Onward fringe from 2 p.m. , fresh from being corrected by a Tory source for freelancing policy on the renters’ rights act. Plus: Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott will use her speech to vow to “kick political activism out of the classroom” — by giving parents more say over what kids are taught. The Telegraph writes it up here .

Chucklevision: As for yesterday’s main speech, the sketch writers’ verdicts on Andrew Griffith’s first speech at conference as shadow chancellor are ... not kind. The Critic’s Rob Hutton says it was one of the worst conference speeches of all time and the others aren’t much better. Labour’s attack unit clipped up the footage of his awkward exit from the stage in quick time.

CONTROVERSIAL THING SAID AT A FRINGE EVENT I: Shadow Home Office Minister Blake Stephenson told a fringe meeting there are “no-go zones” in Luton where “white people won’t go,” according to the Guardian . Stephenson also said the town is a “very dangerous place” where some communities “live in ghettoes.” The Labour MP for Luton North Sarah Owen is, obviously, displeased. Controversial thing said at a fringe event II: Jack Rankin — a PPS to Badenoch — suggested at a fringe event there is a “clear case” for cutting tobacco duty, the Mail’s Christian Calgie reports .

Rankin reckons that wouldn’t result in less Treasury revenue due to black market tobacco sales. Oh, and: Chris Philp joked at the GB News bash last night that he has “acquired an online stalker.” He continued: “His name is Zia and he spends his entire day on Twitter pretending to be the shadow home secretary.” Funnily enough, Zia Yusuf is on GB News this morning. MAIN STAGE: Shadow Housing Secretary Katie Lam (9.45 a.m.) ...

Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott (10.30 a.m.) ... Shadow Culture Secretary Rebecca Paul (12 p.m.). Symphony Hall: Remarks by Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Alex Burghart , Shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat , Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge and Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately (2 p.m. onwards).

PICK OF THE FRINGE: James Cleverly talks London with IPPR and Onward (11.30 a.m., Onward Marquee, ICC) ... Andrew Griffith in convo with the Growth Commission (12.30 p.m., Hall 8a, ICC) ... Katie Lam talks housing (2 p.m., Onward, ICC) ...

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy in convo with Spectator Editor Michael Gove (2 p.m., Hall 8b, ICC) ... Shadow Energy Secretary Andrew Bowie discusses gas production with the CEN (3 p.m., Hall 10a, ICC) ... Andrew Griffith in convo with CPS (4.30 p.m., Hall 7, ICC) ...

James Cartlidge talks defense with BAE Systems (6 p.m., Hall 6, ICC). TUESDAY PARTY PEOPLE (mostly invite only): Embassy of Ireland reception (6 p.m., allegro, Hyatt Regency) ... Conservative Friends of India reception (7 p.m., Hall 11, ICC) ...

Adam Smith Institute rally for liberty (8 p.m., Justham Family Room, ICC) ... Spectator champagne reception (10 p.m., Symphony Ballroom, Hyatt). WESTMINSTER AND BEYOND HE SPEAKS!

Zack Polanski has finally addressed Sunday’s vote at Green conference declaring that Zionism is racism. In a 299-word statement released last night — after he declined interviews all day, according to the BBC — Polanski said he was “proud” of his party’s “principled position on fighting for freedom and justice for Palestinians” ... but didn’t actually address the specific motion. You can read those words here .

Meanwhile, in Labour: Labour MPs and former Labour advisers, including ex-No. 10 Director of Political Strategy Paul Ovenden, tell the Independent’s Kate Devlin that Andy Burnham should rule out the prospect of working with the Greens in coalition. PRE-BUDGET WARNING: Another former top Starmer aide is in the papers — Ben Nunn, the Treasury chief of staff under Rachel Reeves — with some fascinating analysis in the FT on the “god-like” status of the Office for Budget Responsibility ... which will be therapeutic reading for current Treasury officials bracing for the final forecasts from the watchdog in two weeks. He says the focus on the OBR’s conclusions during the budget process left the chancellor’s team feeling “politically impotent.” The memories: “When I served in opposition, I never read a single page of the red book.

Instead, I spent budget days photographing pages of the OBR document and pinging them to journalists on WhatsApp in a desperate effort to disrupt the then Conservative chancellor’s message,” Nunn writes. Which is also decent advice for the new shadow chancellor’s team. More Nunn: The former adviser tells the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast he reckons the challenge for Burnham in a few weeks is: “How does he turn the OBR’s forecast to his advantage, so he can tell the story he wants to tell, rather than simply being victim to the story the OBR has produced?” More on the pod this morning.

YES, AND HO: On Monday at Chequers ... Burnham told his Cabinet that going bold at conference was the “right decision” and has left Labour’s opponents “losing their footing.” Discussions and sessions (the most interesting bits have been kept under wraps) were focused on his upcoming 10-year plan. Back in the happy place: The permanent No. 10 North HQ will be at First Street in Manchester, rather than the digital campus at Ancoats, the Manchester Evening News reports .

That’s handy, given the Ancoats site’s alleged links to Manchester City’s owners ... though the government had already confirmed last month they weren’t planning to use that site. COURT CIRCULAR: Bristol Crown Court will sentence four men convicted of grooming and raping a 17-year-old girl. FAILING TO ACT: Phase 2 of the Southport Inquiry has begun and has heard that the internet played a “pivotal role in what happened to the victims” of the 2024 knife attacks.

A review for the inquiry found that violent material was readily accessible online and still available two weeks after being reported to platforms in more than 80% of cases, reports the BBC . TROUBLED WATERS: Twelve arrests were made during an anti-migrant protest in Gosport that took place when a small boat was due to arrive from France. The MP for Gosport, Caroline Dinenage, has told GB News that Labour didn’t give her any warning that a boat carrying nearly 150 migrants was due to land in the town.

AROUND THE WORLD CLASS DISMISSED: France is bracing for the biggest day of high school protests so far, following widespread demonstrations yesterday and reports that a 15-year-old had his hand blown off during protests, Sky News reports. Between 20,000 and 40,000 demonstrators are expected to march in Paris. PLANE DEVELOPMENT: Israel’s most senior security official, Eytan Ben-David, has said the Omani pilot accused of attempting to hijack a Flydubai plane intended to target Ben Gurion Airport.

The Telegraph has a write-up . **A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Financial empowerment looks different across generations. More than three in four 18–24-year-olds have used AI for personal finance, yet only 64% of digital-tool users in this group feel confident managing money. Among 65–74-year-old digital-tool users, financial confidence rises to 85%—the highest of any age group.

The tools people use—and what they use them for—change through life. Nearly two in three 25–34-year-old AI users use it for budgeting and planning (64%), while nearly six in ten 55–64-year-old users use it to compare insurance (57%). One approach to financial empowerment will not suit every generation.

Younger adults may need support to turn digital curiosity into financial confidence, while older adults may place greater emphasis on managing household costs, security, control and trusted guidance. Read Generation gains by Lloyds Banking Group to see how financial empowerment changes through life. Lives Empowered.

A Nation Empowered. ** MEDIA ROUND Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) ... Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) ... Today (8.10 a.m.) ...

Good Morning Britain (8.35 a.m.) ... LBC (8.50 a.m.) ... GB News (9 a.m.).

Also on Good Morning Britain: Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika (7.20 a.m.) ... author Robert Hardman (7.35 a.m.) ... broadcaster and former MP Gyles Brandreth (9.10 a.m.). Also on GB News Breakfast: Reform UK home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf (7.05 a.m.) Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former Conservative politician Nadhim Zahawi (7.20 a.m.) ... former Conservative Leader Iain Duncan Smith (8.45 a.m.). Also on Talk: Zia Yusuf (7.30 a.m.) ...

Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin (8.10 a.m.) ... Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge (8.30 a.m.). Also on Sky Mornings: James Cartlidge (8.15 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Conservative peer Danny Finkelstein (8.20 a.m.) ... former Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind (9.20 a.m.). TODAY’S FRONT PAGES POLITICO UK : Tories want to duck Burnham’s social care fight. Daily Express : Kemi: Britain needs an ‘iron dome’ to keep us safe.

Daily Mail : Tories vow to build ‘Iron Dome’ to stop drones and missiles. Daily Mirror : King: Don’t use my money. Daily Star : The iron lady.

Financial Times : Sainsbury’s held talks with Morrisons on forging new industry powerhouse. Metro : Predators stalking our Unis. The Daily Telegraph : King tells Andrew: I won’t fund court fight.

The Guardian : Sharp rise in under-50s cancers a ticking timebomb, say experts. The i Paper : Badenoch promises ‘Britannia Dome’ to protect the UK from missile attack. The Times : PM looks to push back decision on defence cash.

The Sun : Iron dome lady. BIRMINGHAM CALLING BIRMINGHAM WEATHER: Sunny intervals. High of 21C, low of 11C.

SPOTTED: Kemi Badenoch wearing “Kemi” glasses and belting out “Sweet Caroline” at the Young Conservatives event . SPOTTED ... at the Sky Nightcap drinks, enjoying the fizz: Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith ... Shadow Cabinet members including James Cartlidge , Victoria Atkins , Andrew Bowie and Richard Holden ...

Deputy Speaker Caroline Nokes ... MPs Caroline Dinenage , Nigel Huddleston , Ben Obese-Jecty , James Cleverly and his wife Susie ... former Scottish Tory Leader Ruth Davidson ... former Deputy PM Thérèse Coffey ... former MPs Tobias Ellwood and Nigel Evans ... Speccie editor and Tory BNOC Michael Gove ...

Badenoch’s chief of staff Henry Newman chatting in the corner with Jacob Rees-Mogg ... advisers Julia Richardson , Jordan Kiss , Dylan Sharpe , Zachary Spiro and Steph Schwarz ... strategist Isaac Levido ... Gillian Keegan , returning to conference as a “normal person” ... author Michael Ashcroft ... Liz Truss press secretary Jonathan Isaby ...

More in Common’s Luke Tryl ... hacks Seb Payne , Lucy Fisher , Cathy Newman , Tali Fraser and Jack Elsom ... and Sky’s Beth Rigby , Sam Coates and Jon Craig . SPOTTED ... drinking prosecco (“Paul Marshall must be running out of money,” drawled one Champagne-loving former minister) at the GB News drinks at the Botanist: Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp ... MPs Victoria Atkins , Gavin Williamson , Katie Lam , Mark Francois , Lincoln Jopp , Damian Hinds , Sarah Bool , Kieran Mullan and Rebecca Harris ...

GB News presenter Jacob Rees-Mogg ... former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland ... former MP Ranil Jayawardena ... Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Paul Bristow ... the GB News team including Camilla Tominey , Christopher Hope , Katherine Forster , Tom Harwood , Keith Bays , Ben Briscoe and Mick Booker ... the Telegraph team including Gordon Rayner , Poppy Coburn and Sapphire Hope ... and hacks Adam Cherry , David Maddox , James Heale , Aubrey Allegretti and Steph Spyro . SPOTTED ...

At the Times/Gatwick party with fruity cocktails: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch ... Shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat ... Shadow Cabinet members including Victoria Atkins , Richard Holden , Katie Lam and Rebecca Harris ...

MPs Edward Argar , Nigel Huddleston , Alan Mak , Alison Griffiths , Kit Malthouse , Gagan Mohindra , Jack Rankin , Ben Obese-Jecty and Geoffrey Clifton-Brown ... former MP Robin Walker ... Thérèse Coffey ... former Education Secretary Gillian Keegan ... Ruth Davidson ... strategist Salma Shah ... aides Henry Newman and Dylan Sharpe ... advisers Sheridan Westlake , Jordan Kiss and Steph Schwarz ... journalists Chris Mason , Sam Coates , Ethan Croft ... and the Times team including Tony Gallagher , Steven Swinford , Ben Riley-Smith , Fraser Nelson , Geri Scott , Jack Blackburn , Ben Clatworthy , Martin Ivens , Oliver Wright , Danny Finkelstein , Aubrey Allegretti , Daisy Eastlake , Tom Peck and Patrick Maguire .

SPOTTED ... at the TikTok/UK Music night with the LGBT+ Conservatives: Shadow Housing Secretary Katie Lam, who won the battle of the DJs ... pipping Shadow Wales Secretary Mims Davies and Nigel Huddleston to the post despite their aggressive continuous crowd work ... and Shadow Development Minister Wendy Morton playing almost exclusively ABBA ... Tory MPs Gagan Mohindra , Luke Evans , Lewis Cocking ... political strategist Isaac Levido ... Deputy Police and Crime Commissioner for Surrey Ellie Vesey-Thompson ... ex-MPs Elliot Colburn , Nigel Evans , Andrew Stephenson and Jackie Doyle-Price ...

London Assembly Member Emma Best ... Councillor Ed Barradell ... Tory staffers Liv Lever , James Heywood and Ed Massey ... hacks Tom Harwood and Christian Calgie ...

Conservative commentators Albie Amankona , Tom Skinner and Emily Hewertson ... former SpAds Jamie Njoku-Goodwin , Cesca Fraser , Lawrence Abel , Callum Price , Joe Tetlow and Henry Cook ... former chairs of the LGBT+ Conservatives Luke Robert Black and Elena Rose Bunbury ... Reform activist Chris Rose ... the tallest Tory James McAlpine thankfully standing at the back of the venue ... and TikTok’s Head of Public Affairs Giles Derrington organizing his last party at conference before moving on to pastures new. HIRING: Reform UK’s Aaron Lobo has a new gig leading the party’s broadcast and digital operation — and is hiring for various roles including head of video, reporters, producers, head of social media and an executive editor.

NEW GIG: Vincent McAviney has joined No. 10 as a special adviser, leaving the BBC after nearly seven years as a freelance correspondent. DON’T MISS : Channel 4 has started filming for the second series of “Handcuffed ,” and it seems TV personality Katie Price and Reform MP Suella Braverman will be chained together. Nadine Dorries writes in her Mail column that she turned down the opportunity to take part.

IN MEMORIAM: Novelist and Conservative MP Jeffrey Archer has died aged 86, his publishers have said. The Telegraph reports that he had been signing books and meeting fans as recently as Sunday. Nadhim Zahawi described him as a “dear friend and an extraordinary human being.” TUESDAY’S POD PICK : Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins pod bros Rory and Alastair to discuss Palestine Action, small boats, and faith and public duty.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio. WRITING PLAYBOOK WEDNESDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald. BIRTHDAYS: North Ayrshire and Arran MP Irene Campbell ... former Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams ... former Foreign Office Minister Mark Field ... former Immigration Minister Seema Kennedy ...

Labour peer Melvyn Bragg . PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Matt Honeycombe-Foster , Alex Spence , James Panichi and Dan Bloom , reporter Megan McElroy and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros . SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | Berlin Playbook | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | D.C.

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Source: politico.eu